Doncaster Sky Bet Chase
With Cheltenham’s Trials day in the balance pending a Friday inspection, Doncaster looks like offering the key betting races on Saturday.
There looks to be a few good betting opportunities, starting with the feature Sky Bet Chase
One For The Team - Sky Bet Chase
3:15 Sky Bet Handicap Chase
This is all about the Nick Williams trained One For The Team. A novice, in his first season over fences, he has had just 3 runs to get a handicap mark and he is extremely leniently treated on the evidence of those efforts.
On Thursday evening, he is currently a best-priced 13/2. I expect One For The Team to go off considerably shorter. His chance is obvious and I’d be pretty confident that every competent form or time-based punter is going to latch onto his prospects and there be a significant run of money for One For The Team.
I prefer to stay away from terms like ‘nap’ or ‘maximum bet’ and to think in terms of price available versus chance. There’ll always be another race and another good value bet to be had and so treating one bet as the be-all and end-all of everything is dangerous. It’s betting on horses running across a field and the unpredictable could impact the outcome.
That said, I want to be pushing my bet here. In terms of price versus chance One For The Team looks to represent a very good value bet.
At Doncaster, on the initial prices there are a couple more races that appeal.
12:55 Visit Attheraces.com Handicap Hurdle
Sunset West looks fairly treated though I’d be concerned by the form of the Philip Kirby runners at present. The only firm to have priced up as I write is William Hills, at 9/2 Sunset West doesn’t appeal.
The one that stands out at on the William Hill prices is En Couleur at 14/1. In the past 2 seasons, as a generation 4-year-old hurdlers have been leniently treated in handicaps when taking on their elders.
That looks the case here, it’ll be interesting to see as the prices go up from the other firms but I’ll be bold enough to say Hills have got this one wrong.
En Couleur makes considerable appeal at the price, I can see the 4-year-old going off considerably shorter, single figures, I have him as the most likely winner, 9/2 would be my minimum bet price.
Floressa to go one better
2:05 Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Yorkshire Rose Mares’ Hurdle
On past form, Floressa is the best horse in the race and by enough to think she should be an odds on chance here. So at the 7/4 put up in the first show she appeals as a bet.
2nd in this race last year, when I thought Floressa had equally strong claims she failed to deliver and couldn’t compete with Lady Buttons. This season at both Newbury and Kempton Floressa has shown she is significantly better than she posted in last years running and she looks worth backing at the current price to show her superiority.
2:40 Albert Bartlett River Don Novices’ Hurdle
One of the more competitive races on the card and it has an interesting betting shape.
I have 4 on my shortlist, with little between them on what they’ve shown so far – Emir Sacree, Ashtown Lad, Exploiteur and Castle Robin.
As a winner of a fast run race last time out its difficult to put a top end of Emir Sacree’s ability. He’s my idea of the most likely winner and a worthy favourite, bits and pieces of 5/1 as I pen this and that seems a fair enough price.
Ashtown Lad is in at 13/2 on the opening prices. His easy Uttoxeter win in November signposts his chance here, on that effort, he is a big player.
Subsequently, Ashtown Lad disappointed at Cheltenham, with that effort fresher in the memory I’d hoped he’d have been bigger than the current 13/2. While I respect his chance, the price puts me off and for now, I’m looking for value elsewhere.
Exploiteur looks undervalued by the market. He’s latest runs have been in handicaps and as is often the case handicap form is underestimated by the market when moving back into novice contests.
I wouldn’t be averse to backing any of the aforementioned if bigger prices become available though at this stage it is Castle Robin who appeals as priced most incorrectly.
Two runs back, Castle Robin finished 2nd to Emir Sacree at Ascot. Taking into account jockey allowances Castle Robin meets that rival on 11lbs better terms for a 1 ¼ length beating. Based on that evidence and at the current prices Castle Robin is an obvious bet – Castle Robin 14/1 versus Emir Sacree 5/1.