RSA Chase Master Tommytucker
Time to add to the Cheltenham ante-post portfolio.
I’ve been sitting on this horse for several weeks now, but as he is due to run at Kempton tomorrow then it is the time to take some value.
The horse in question is Master Tommytucker. The angle into this bet is an exceptional time performance on his debut at Kempton on 25th November.
Kempton time performance of Master Tommytucker
Occasionally a horse produces a time performance that gets the heart racing. You know you’ve found a good one. The last time a novice chaser posted such a figure so early in their career was Coneygree when he won at Newbury on his chase debut, indicating he was a very high-class chaser. What followed vindicated that.
To give Master Tommytucker’s time some context. It’s just a couple of lengths behind the performance Topofthegame put up in winning last seasons RSA Chase and considerably better than anything achieved by any of the English horses above him in the 2020 RSA Chase betting.
Under the radar
The other key reason to backing Mater Tommytucker now is that his Kempton performance seems to have gone under the radar.
On the face of the bare form I can understand this. A half-length beating of the useful but exposed over hurdles Who Dares Wins. I’ve little doubt that Who Dares Wins is very useful too. He doesn’t run tomorrow or indeed have any engagements over the festive period and while he’s 50/1 for the RSA Chase and 33/1 for the Marsh Chase at the Festival, he can wait for another day.
Third, a further 33 lengths behind Master Tommytucker at Kempton was Thomas Darby. I think people have written his performance off as below-par. Similarly The Big Bite, another fair hurdler was a further 22 lengths back in 4th. I’m confident the future will show these horse’s in a better light and they were really up against a pair of future high-class chasers.
If you’ve not seen the Kempton race, I’d urge you to watch. Visually you can see the intensity of the pace Master Tommytucker set. Relentlessly and gradually taking every horse out of its comfort zone.
Master Tommytucker defeats Who Dares Wins at Kempton
🗣️"He could have been unbeaten going into the race."@PFNicholls has high hopes for Master Tommytucker in the the @Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at @kemptonparkrace on Boxing Day ⬇️https://t.co/5Pl1NBu45C pic.twitter.com/dHuW8VfJ3L— Racing TV (@RacingTV) December 18, 2019
Now here’s what has been troubling me. Which race will Master Tommytucker be aimed at the Cheltenham Festival?
It’s a difficult call at this stage. His Kempton win was over 2 mile 2 furlongs. The pace he showed to lead all the way might be good enough for the speed test of an Arkle.
Over hurdles, he won over the furthest distance attempted, 2 miles 5 furlongs. He’s not been tried over 3 miles yet so it’s an unknown. That’s not necessarily a negative.
The Kempton race on Boxing Day is over the same 3 miles as the RSA. Albeit 3 miles around Cheltenham is more demanding on stamina.
Why back Master Tommytucker for the RSA Chase?
Playing out the scenarios at Kempton on Boxing.
Should he win, firstly he’s likely to shorten considerably for the RSA and move towards the front of the betting. If he wins, I’d expect connections to confirm the RSA as his intended Cheltenham target.
If he’s beat on Boxing Day it may be that connections opt to revert back in trip. The Marsh Chase at the Festival would be a more likely target. Secondly, if he’s beaten on Boxing Day I wouldn’t particularly expect his price to contract so there’ll likely to be an opportunity to still avail a decent price for the Marsh Chase.
Bits and pieces of 33/1 and 28/1 available but generally available at 25/1 for the RSA. The hope is that the bet has a market value in the 10/1 region shortly after 2 pm on Boxing Day.