Lincoln Handicap Preview
Haqeeqy and Eastern World head the betting. I’m against Eastern World at around 9/2, he is the wrong price for me. Haqeeqy has an obvious chance, a lightly raced improver from the John Gosden stable, there is probably better and significantly better to come for Haqeeqy.
It’s all about price, if you are on at much bigger than the current 4/1, then well done. Much as I like Haqeeqy, I can’t back him at the current price.
Lincoln Handicap Overpriced Horses
There are others to consider in this race, once chance is assessed, what price can you get?
4 horses I currently consider overpriced and a short rationale on why.
The betting shape of the Lincoln could change significantly should the forecast rain arrive on Friday. While this may not detract from Haqeeqy’s chance, it would enhance the chance of others.
Grove Ferry is one of a few in here who has shown his ‘to date’ best on soft ground.
His second to Tomfre at Doncaster in October was his best effort and the time recorded points to his chance in the Lincoln.
No trainer is better than Andrew Balding at finding progression in younger lightly raced horses. That prospect, plus William Carver reducing his racing weight by 5 lbs and I have Grove Ferry overpriced at 20/1. I make him a 12/1 chance.
Another 4-y-o with likely better ahead of him.
Ascension’s Ayr win in September is, at the Lincoln weights, the best time performance recorded ahead of this race. A reproduction of the Ayr win and he is too big at the current 20/1.
Rain would be a positive to Ascension’s chance, he’s a big horse with a pronounced knee action who has shown his best to date with some cut in the ground.
Beaten 3 3/4 lengths off a handicap mark of 104 in one of the hottest handicap races of 2020 when 7th to Montatham at York. Orbaan gets to race off 102 in the Lincoln, I’ve no doubt he can win races off this mark.
1 mile on good ground are optimum conditions. Orbaan is overpriced at the current 33/1 and bigger on Betfair.
Kynren is a remarkable performer, the consistency of his performaces over several seasons in these competive races is pretty unique.
At his best over a strongly run straight mile/7 furlongs with some cut in the ground, Kynren has dropped to a rating of 101 (his last winning handicap mark).
Available at 33/1 and bigger on the Exchanges, he’s the wrong price, especially should rain soften the ground at Doncaster.
Unibet Spring Mile Handicap
Competitive, but unlike the Lincoln there are less potential improvers in the field. Past racecourse performance may prove the best guide to finding the winner.
Those who look on marks they’re capable of winning off include Amaysmont, Overwrite, Anythingtoday, Queens Sargent, Sporiad and Mostawaa.
At he prices Overwrite and Mostawaa appeal most.
Overwrite is probably the best handicapped horse on past performance in this race.
As always, assessing a Mark Johnston trained horse is a difficult task, he could win, or he could finish tailed off and turn out next week and dot up.
The price needs to compensate for what is an almost impossible variable to build in. I’ve backed Overwrite at 20/1 to win the Spring Mile and am okay with spinning the wheel at that price!
Mostawaa is definitely overpriced here at 50/1.
At his best over a mile on good ground, he’ll have conditions to suit and has back timefigures that put him in the mix here.
The booking of Silvestre De Sousa could be viewed as a positive. He was onboard for a previous win at Haydock.
Unibet Doncaster Mile Stakes
Montatham should be favourite for the Doncaster Mile. I’m against the Andrew Balding trained Bounce The Blues and his presence at the head of the market makes this an interesting betting heat.
If Montatham reproduces his York win from last August he has a strong chance here, better than the 7/2 currently available. I can see Montatham going off shorter.
Top Rank’s form is tied in with that of Montatham and at 7/1 is probably a little too big.
Space Traveller looks overpriced at 7/1 and the most likely benefactor should Montatham not deliver.