Some high class and competitive racing to look forward to in the coming week at Glorious Goodwood.
Pre-meeting, a few horses I’m looking forward to see run and with the big competive fields, plenty of potential value on offer.
A look back at the weekend first
A couple of horses to note from Ascot’s King George meeting on Saturday gone.
Isla Kai & Guru.
Isla Kai was a late withdrawal on Saturday, presumably on account of the quick ground after the rain didn’t arrive. The time of his Doncaster win in May from Beau Jardine marked him down as a horse of some potential. He’s gone in twice since, on the latest occasion at Ascot where he beat Guru. The time of the Acsot win suggests he is still ahead of the handicapper and still improving.
Visually, he’s a big animal and I’d suspect better is ahead as he fills out his substantial frame.
From an analytics point of view, Nigel Tinkler is an excellent trainer. His horses are often aimed low and lightly raced at an early age and then show predictable and solid progression with age. Each season he finds several horses who follow this pattern. Isla Kai very much fits this profile. Tinkler is clearly in no rush with Isla Kai, he was a withdrawal at Royal Ascot in the Britannia and again on Saturday. Soft ground seems to be a prerequisite for Isla Kai showing his best.
Guru ran second behind Isla Kai at Ascot and as aforementioned the time of the race marks Guru down as well handicapped. He managed to win on King George day on ground that was probably too quick for him. Run the replay of the race and note Guru’s exaggerated knee action, normally associated with a horse with a preference for soft ground.
Lightly raced and on the up, John Gosden’s gelding could be a lot better than he has shown to date. A speculative thought at this stage is he would be an ideal type for the Cambridgeshire. From a breeding angle, a step up from 1 mile is likely to suit. There’s certainly a good race to be won with him off his current mark when he gets back on soft ground.
Glorious Goodwood Thoughts
Two races that produced time performances that suggest those to the head of the finishing order are ahead of their current marks.
Firstly, the Twilight Calls race from Newmarket on the 9th July.
The manner of Twilight Calls win and the way he travelled through what was a race run in a very quick time marks him down as a horse of considerable potential. Henry Candy, a master of taking it slow, has Twilight Calls entered in the 5 furlong World Pool Handicap on Thursday. He’s going to have a strong chance of victory and I’d be pretty confident he’ll be contesting Group races before too long.
Second behind Twilight Calls at Newmarket was King Of Stars.
King Of Stars has had quite a bit of racing but his effort behind Twilight Calls was a big step forward. Mick Appleby has his horses in great form and while the Newmarket effort was on quick ground, King Of Stars has some back form, albeit not to the same level, on softer ground in Ireland.
King Of Stars has an entry in the 4:10 on Tuesday and has a decent chance.
Balearic was marked down as one to follow when third behind Elvrika at Haydock in June over an inadequte 1 mile. From a pedigree angle, dosage index 0.45, centre of distribution (0.33) a step up in distance was likely to suit and he duly obliged when stepped up to 10 furlongs at Chepstow. Although the Chepstow race was only a 3 runner contest, the time indicates Balearic is on a winnable mark.
Balearic has an entry in an ultra competive 10 furlong handicap on Thursday. He’ll need the ground to dry out (withdrawn on Eclipse Day at Sandown on dead ground), but looking at the forecast that is a possibilty. In the early betting shows, he’s marked up as a 20/1 shot, that appeals at this stage as some value.
And finally, one that looks well handicapped and targeted for a race.
Magical Wish is entered up in the 5:10 on Wednesday, a race he was 2nd in last year behind Toro Strike. Course, ground and distance look to be optimum for Magical Wish on Wednesday. It’s been a while since he has won, but he looks to retain all his ability and be on a winnable handicap mark.
There’ll be more fashionable types preferred in the betting and Magical Wish can go well at a decent price.